WASHINGTON (Michigan News Source) – Holiday retail sales are likely to increase between 4% and 6% in 2022, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast.

Overall, Deloitte’s retail and consumer products practice projects holiday sales will total $1.45 to $1.47 trillion during the November to January timeframe. In 2021, holiday sales grew by 15.1% in the same period.

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However, several other factors could put a damper on holiday spirit. On Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate pulled back slightly from a 40-year peak in August, but came in less than expected. The CPI inflation rate eased to 8.3%, retreating from July’s 8.5% and June’s 9.1% rate. The Dow tanked on Tuesday.

At the same time these numbers came out, President Joe Biden touted a so-called victory lap for the Inflation Reduction Act. He called it a “win for the American people” and said “special interests lost.”

Deloitte also forecasts e-commerce sales will grow by 12.8% to 14.3%, year-over-year, during the 2022-2023 holiday season.

While these numbers sound encouraging, there could be a penny on the track. Railroad companies and unions have until Friday to resolve a labor dispute that risks a crippling shutdown of the nation’s freight-rail network. A strike would likely wreak havoc on the US economy and delay shipment of goods, including Christmas gifts.