LANSING, Mich. (Michigan News Source) – With only hours left for Michiganders to step into the voting booth or drop off their absentee ballots, GOP gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon has a slight lead over incumbent Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer with 48.5% of the vote to Whitmer’s 48.2%.

The razor-thin margin that shows Dixon ahead of Whitmer came from a Trafalgar Group poll. The poll was conducted from November 5th through 7th with 1,097 likely general election voters. The poll has a margin of error of 2.9%.

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Getting 0.6% of the vote in the poll was Libertarian Mary Buzuma, in addition to 0.7% for “other” and only 2% of voters who are still undecided.

The Michigan survey of voters listed the party participation in the poll as 54.5% Democrat, 37.1% Republican and 8.4% with no party/other. The highest majority of the participants were ages 45 to 64 (39.2%), followed by voters 65+ years old (24.9%), ages 35-44 (14.1%), ages 25-34 (14%) and ages 18-24 (7.9%).

The survey included responses from Whites (80%), Blacks (12.6%), Hispanics (3.3%), Asians (1.3%) and “other” (2.8%) and it represented more women (52.4%) than men (47.6%).

About 1.7 million Michiganders have already cast their ballot as of November 7th and according to Bridge Michigan who analyzed absentee voting data from L2, a firm who matched voter ID of returned ballots through November 2nd with past voting histories in the last presidential primary, “61.4% of the absentee voters favored Democrats in the 2020 primary compared to 33% who are likely Republicans.”

They also reported that over 60% of the absentee voters are 65-years-old or older.

An estimated 4 million votes are expected in Michigan’s election with about half of those expected to be absentee ballots.

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At a rally at Michigan State University on Monday, Governor Whitmer told the crowd, “This election could be decided by a few thousand votes. That can be made up just on this campus alone.”

Dixon tweeted about the Trafalgar poll, “While the race has never been closer, we have the lead over Gretchen this morning!”

She also tweeted that November 8th is the day “we take our state back” and said, “We have an opportunity to change our state for every child, every parent, every business, and everyone that calls Michigan home.”

Polls close at 8 pm Tuesday night in Michigan and official election results aren’t expected for 24 hours after the polls close. Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson told reporters recently, “Some jurisdictions may be done more quickly…But barring any disruption, we expect it will take until Wednesday late in the afternoon or evening for all jurisdictions to finish counting and reporting their results.”

Gov. Whitmer will be having her election watch party tonight at the Motor City Casino in Detroit. Dixon will be in Grand Rapids at the JW Marriott.