LANSING, Mich. (Michigan News Source) – With Michigan currently being controlled by a Democratic Governor, House, Senate, Attorney General, Secretary of State and Supreme Court – and Democrat proposals passing by large margins last November – one might conclude that Michigan is a “blue” state and not a “swing state” anymore.

A swing state is a purple state – not blue (Democrat) and not red (Republican). It’s a state where the two major political parties have a similar level of support among the voters. It’s also a state that’s important in determining the result of a presidential election. While the latter has always been true, Michigan News Source is taking a deep dive into whether the former issue is still true and if Republican candidates have a chance of winning elections in Michigan in 2024.

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In a recent poll done by EPIC-MRA, a nonpartisan firm in Lansing, 600 likely November 2024 voters in Michigan were surveyed and only gave President Joe Biden a 1% lead over President Donald Trump in a hypothetical matchup in the upcoming presidential race. Biden got 46% of the vote with Trump close behind at 45%.

In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Michigan by 2.8 percentage points. Biden got Michigan’s 16 electoral votes with 2,804,040 Michiganders voting for him vs. 2,649,852 voting for Trump.

Hanging over the heads of both men in the upcoming election, if they are their party’s nominees, are their advanced ages and multiple controversies including Trump’s four indictments and Biden’s involvement with his son’s alleged bribery schemes in addition to criticisms over the open border, the economy and his Ukrainian policy.

Both men have primary challengers although none of the current Republican or Democrat candidates have close to the level of support of Biden or Trump. Biden’s approval rating in Michigan, according to the poll, is only at 39% with Trump’s at 37%.

Bernie Porn, president of EPIC-MRA, was on the Steve Gruber Show on August 23rd and said, “Biden is not performing as well as he should be in Wayne, Oakland and Macomb county. He is not performing as well as he should be among union members. As a matter of fact, among union members, Trump is leading by three points.”

In the race for the senate seat in Michigan in a hypothetical matchup between Democratic candidate Elissa Slotkin and soon-to-announce Republican candidate Mike Rogers, the EPIC-MRA poll also showed Slotkin is only ahead of her rival by five percentage points. Slotkins came in with 42% support v. Rogers’ 37%. Even in her own party, Slotkin is not performing extremely well. She is ahead of the other six Democratic candidates but only has 34% support according to an August Emerson College poll.

In November of 2022, the Democrats won by big numbers in Michigan, fueled by voter turnout due to Democratic-led proposals on the ballot including abortion and voting right initiatives.

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Proposal 2, a voting rights initiative called “Promote the Vote,” passed by a wide margin of 19.98 percentage points which allowed Michigan legislators to enact new voting legislation this year. Because of Proposal 2, voting in Michigan will change dramatically in the 2024 elections with same day registration, nine days of early voting and many other changes made by Michigan Democratic legislators.

Proposal 3, the constitutional amendment that gives Michiganders the state constitutional right to reproductive freedom, passed by a 13.32 percentage point margin. The vote took place after the Supreme Court ruled in June of 2022 that the Constitution does not confer a right to abortion in the Dobbs case which overturned Roe v. Wade.

Gruber said in the interview with Porn, “The last election, abortion was driving a lot of people left of center out to vote. It certainly impacted the outcome of those elections. I don’t think there’s any doubt about that.”

Porn agreed and said that he and Glengariff (Group) were the only pollsters who were saying at the time that the abortion issue was going to have an impact on the elections in Michigan.

Gruber said that he doesn’t expect the Democrats to have the same turnout in 2024 unless they find something else to put on the ballot that could galvanize the voters – something like gun control. However Porn said the abortion issue, while not on the ballot this time around, will still be in the campaigns and that Republicans haven’t adjusted their position on abortion to reflect public opinion.

The abortion issue, many have concluded, was also behind the large turnout of young voters in the state. The Michigan Department of State said in April that the “young people in Michigan turned out to vote last November at a higher rate than anywhere else in the country.” The young voters (ages 18-29), according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) at Tufts University turned out at a rate of 37%. Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said about the turnout, “We continue working with Michigan’s colleges and universities and their local clerks to ensure young citizens can conveniently cast their ballot and know how to do so, and I’m thrilled to see data recognizing the impact of our work.”

Abortion was certainly a factor in the gubernatorial battle between Democratic incumbent Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Republican challenger Tudor Dixon was framed as a Republican with extremist views on abortion including supporting abortion only if it saves the life of a woman and not supporting exceptions in the cases of rape or incest.

Recently, in an interview with President Trump on her podcast, Dixon acknowledged that she wasn’t able to “pivot” on the abortion issue quickly enough to have an effect on the election even though Trump had told her to soften her message and talk about it differently. During the Michigan gubernatorial campaign, Gov. Gretchen used what seemed to some to be unlimited amounts of cash to make abortion a pivotal part of her campaign, tweeting almost every day that she would “Fight like Hell” for the right to abortion. When all was said and done, Whitmer beat Dixon by a whopping 10.53 percentage points.

Another aspect of the upcoming elections to analyze is the impact that Michigan’s political parties will have on fundraising for candidates and on voter turnout.

Looking ahead, with what seems to be a chaotic and financially strapped Michigan GOP led by Chairwoman Kristina Karamo, many are questioning the future effectiveness of the state party in their ability to fundraise for the Republican candidates and help them win their elections. Many are not even clear what their priorities are. On the party’s website, it says, “We advocate for strong families, education excellence, and honest compassion. We believe in ensuring the integrity of elections, and maintaining our national security. We foster principled, innovative leadership which stimulates economic growth, giving every American the opportunity to succeed through personal responsibility and rugged individualism.” However, in order to do that, they have to fundraise and elect Republican candidates on the state and federal level. In a recent email, the MIGOP said that they don’t even have a usable GOP contact database and requested supporters to follow them on their social media platforms and interact with their posts.

The Michigan Democrat Party, on the other hand, seems pretty organized and focused on winning elections. According to their last campaign email that was sent out last week, they said, “Our plan for 2024 is simple: Send President Biden back to the White House; win Michigan’s open seat to keep control of the U.S. Senate; flip some of the nation’s most competitive U.S. House seats so Democrats can take back control of Congress; and protect our state house majority so Michigan Democrats can continue leading and winning.” They went on to say, “Michigan will be one of, if not the biggest battleground states in 2024. Huge national special interests are pouring money into Michigan to help the fractured, rudderless MIGOP win next year. We can’t let them outspend, outorganize or outplay us.”

That “fractured” and “rudderless” accusation by the Michigan Democratic Party might be true as evidence by the MIGOP’s press conference last week where they addressed Gov. Whitmer’s “What’s Next” speech and used the press conference to mostly discuss voter fraud accusations instead of outlining a plan to assure party victory in 2024.

Regardless of whether the MIGOP will be effective at winning elections or not, the Michigan House Republicans seem to be in a strong position to take back the majority in 2024 – at least financially.

Michigan News Source reported in July that the House Republican Campaign Committee had collected a record $1,000,747.36 in the last campaign fundraising quarter between April and July. Michigan House Republican leader Matt Hall (R-Richland Twp) had said that 60% of the money in the recent quarter came from individuals instead of colleagues, lobbyists and PACs. Hall also said, “it became very clear to a lot of business people across the state that Gretchen Whitmer was not going to be a moderating force on the Democrat Party.” He said with the governor and the Democrats, who ran as moderates, moving to the left, there are no longer checks and balances in the state. That is what he wants to change by taking back the House – and with the support that the committee is receiving, it looks like many in the Republican party agree.

Also in the mix when looking at future Michigan elections is a court case that was brought about by 20 Detroit voters concerning redistricting. They allege the new maps have lowered Black voter percentages and their ability to elect representation. At the end of 2021, the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission (MICRC) approved new voting districts that will be in place for elections for the next decade for the state Legislature and U.S. House. The upcoming court case includes nine Detroit-area House Districts 1,7, 10, 12 and 14 as well as Senate Districts 1, 3, 6 and 8. However, even under these new maps, the Democrats were still able to win both the House and Senate for the first time in 40 years.

Many in the political realm are concluding that 2024 voter turnout in Michigan, and in the other states, will be based on who the presidential candidate are and the kind of campaigns they run. And, as always, turnout is key.

A Reuters article reports, “Critics say the Republican Party’s continued lurch to the right after midterm losses of candidates backed by former President Donald Trump could imperil its chances in a state that will likely prove critical to control of the White House and Congress in 2024, with one of Michigan’s Senate seats in play.”

But lurching to the left could be just as ominous for the Democrats when independent voters and business owners look at what they have done and their plans for the future. In last week’s speech by Gov. Whitmer about “what’s next” for her party, she outlined the Democrat agenda and the areas that her party is going to move ahead with including getting rid of more “restrictive” abortion laws, raising taxes, adding paid family leave, implementing a 100% clean energy standard, codifying the Affordable Care Act and more. She’s also been criticized for supporting the Chinese-linked Gotion development project with millions in taxpayer dollars.

And what about Gov. Whitmer’s presidential aspirations? Many in the media disagree on whether the speech was a roadmap to Michigan election victory in 2024 or a roadmap to the White House for Whitmer. Will she be busy trying to elect Michigan Democrats or busy trying to elect herself to the Oval Office? In June, she announced her “Fight Like Hell PAC” to supposedly back federal candidates like President Joe Biden.

Even though there appears to be numerous election victories for Democrats in the state and across the country, things aren’t coming up all roses for the party. Because they are governing from the progressive far left, many conservative Democrats and independents are not supportive of what they have been doing. Across the United States, the party has been criticized on their views and policies concerning things like open borders, transgender support, and parental rights in schools, issues that they don’t poll well in across the country.

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At the end of the interview on the Steve Gruber show, EPIC-MRA president Bernie Porn said, “it continues to be a close race and Michigan will be a competitive state and it will be a decision maker in the congressional election and certainly the U.S. Senate.”

When asked by Gruber if Michigan was still a swing state, Porn said, “Based on this polling, yes.”

In a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, it shows something that voters in both parties actually agree on. Overall, 37% of registered voters said that the problems are so bad in America that we are in danger of failing as a nation – with 65% of American say that we are on the “wrong track.”

Whether we stay on that wrong track or not will be decided in November of 2024 – and about half the country, and half of Michigan, will not agree with the outcome.