LANSING, Mich. (Michigan News Source) – A new set of polls by The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer reveals a fascinating dynamic in the race for the 2024 presidential election. Donald J. Trump leads President Joe Biden among registered voters in five crucial battleground states, including Michigan. Biden, however, edges ahead among likely voters, highlighting the complexity of voter sentiment in the state.

What did the polls reveal?

Conducted between April 28 and May 9, the polls surveyed 4,097 registered voters across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The methodology included live interviews by telephone in both English and Spanish, with nearly 95 percent of respondents contacted via cell phone. The polls show Trump ahead among registered voters in Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, while Biden leads in Wisconsin. Among likely voters, the race is closer, with Biden leading in Michigan and trailing narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

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In Michigan, the poll results reveal:

  • Trump: 49% among registered voters
  • Biden: 42% among registered voters
  • Biden: Leads among likely voters

What about support for Biden?

A closer look at the surveys reveals an erosion of support for Biden among young, Black, and Hispanic voters, who typically form the foundation of the Democratic coalition. These groups have expressed discontent over economic issues and the war in Gaza, threatening to unravel Biden’s base as many voters yearn for fundamental changes rather than a return to normalcy. This shift has temporarily altered the electoral map, with Trump gaining significant support among young and nonwhite voters in states like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, where Black and Hispanic voters previously helped secure Biden’s victory. Even still, Biden remains competitive in Northern swing states with relatively white electorates, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Based on the survey, Michigan’s voter turnout will be a crucial factor in determining the 2024 election outcome as the enthusiasm gap between registered and likely voters could play a decisive role. Trump’s support among registered voters shows his appeal and is indicative of his broad support, but converting that support into votes will be key.

Despite Biden winning all six key states in 2020, he could secure re-election by winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin again, provided he maintains his support in other states he previously carried. And yet, the polls suggest widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the country and serious doubts about Biden’s ability to deliver significant improvements. Nearly 70 percent of voters believe the political and economic systems need major changes or even a complete overhaul, according to this New York Times article

What issues are important to voters?

Meanwhile, abortion rights emerge as a significant vulnerability for Trump, with 64 percent of voters in battleground states believing it should be mostly or always legal. The Biden campaign emphasizes Trump’s support for Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade, with voters preferring Biden over Trump on handling the issue by 11 points (49 to 38 percent, according to The New York Times).

As the 2024 election approaches, the dynamics in Michigan and other battleground states will be closely watched. With less than six months until the election, there is still time for an improving economy to lift Biden’s standing. Trump’s breakthrough among traditionally Democratic voters may lack stability, given that many of these voters are irregular and disengaged, making their support likely to shift as the race progresses.