DETROIT, Mich. (Michigan News Source) – If the 2026 election were held today, it would probably be another nail-biter in the Great Lakes State. According to polls from the Glengariff Group, Inc. that were commissioned by the Detroit Regional Chamber, Michigan voters are energized – but deeply divided on which candidates they support, how they view the economy, and whether tariffs are helping or hurting the state.
Governor’s race: a three-way toss-up with a metro twist.
Among registered voters, Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is holding a narrow edge in hypothetical matchups in the gubernatorial race against all candidates. The field includes independent Mike Duggan, currently the mayor of Detroit. Benson is also way ahead in a hypothetical Democratic primary (59.3%) against Lt. Governor Garlin Gilchrist (6.9%), and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson (8.1%) with the undecided vote at 25.8%.
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Duggan appears to play a spoiler in every scenario, drawing support fairly evenly from both major parties and dominating the independent vote. Basically, he’s everyone’s second choice and no one’s nominee.
John James tops GOP field.
U.S. Representative John James (R-MI), a decorated Army veteran and current congressman, is leading the field of potential Republican gubernatorial candidates in a hypothetical Republican primary with 41.9% support. He does even better among voters age 65 and older with 55.6% support.
Trailing behind James is Tudor Dixon, former GOP nominee for governor and media personality, who has not yet declared a 2026 run, but still draws 20.2% support. Former Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox comes in at 10.9%, while State Senate Majority Leader Aric Nesbitt garners just 4.8%. A significant portion of voters – 22.2% – remain undecided, signaling the race could still shift depending on campaign announcements and momentum.
In head-to-head contests, Benson leads James by only 0.5% among registered voters, but her lead grows to 3.7% among “definite” voters. Against Tudor Dixon, Benson’s lead widens to 3.7% (registered) and 8.9% (definite).
Duggan’s Detroit mojo doesn’t travel.
Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, running as an independent, is the wildcard in the general election to choose a new governor – pulling strong numbers in Metro Detroit (up to 40%) but flopping in areas outside the state’s major urban centers, particularly outside of Metro Detroit.
Senate choices.
Over on the U.S. Senate front, Former Rep. Republican Mike Rogers leads all general election matchups among registered voters except against Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), who leads by 1.4%. She also beats Rogers by 6% among “definite” voters.
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Rogers remains the heavy favorite in the Republican primary with 64.3% support, while Democrats are more splintered between Stevens (34.3%), former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed
(22.2%), and State Senator Mallory McMorrow (13.7%). However, Stevens performs strongly in a hypothetical Democratic primary among independents, Black voters, women, and seniors.
Economy: voters say on the “wrong track.”
Given current conditions, most Michigan voters are not loving the economy. In fact, 53.6% say the economy is on the wrong track, with independents agreeing by a 2-to-1 margin.
Pollster Richard Czuba, founder of the Glengariff Group, Inc. says, “It’s independents who are going to make decisions in Michigan and so we have to pay particular attention to where they are on all of these issues. The Biden administration learned a very valuable lesson. Nobody wins by telling voters they’re wrong.”
Trump treads water as Michigan voters brace for a bumpy economy.
President Donald Trump’s job approval stands at 46.4% approve to 47.3% disapprove among registered Michigan voters. Independent voters disapprove of Trump’s performance by a margin of 37.3%-46.4%.
Recession fears are up 40% since January, and only 16.6% say they’re doing better than last year. 26.2% are doing worse and 56.1% are doing the same.
And the tariffs? A majority (51.3%) oppose Trump’s increased tariffs because they think that they are bad for Michigan, and many (78.6%) believe they’ll end up paying more at the store because of them. Yet 48.2% also believe tariffs will bring back Michigan manufacturing jobs. So while many in Michigan think tariffs are painful, they also think they may be worth it if it means more jobs in the state.
Political moods.
Here’s where it gets interesting. Democratic voters are more motivated to vote right now – but most likely because they’re deeply dissatisfied with everything. 74.7% of strong Democratic voters say they will vote while only 66.3% of strong Republicans say they will.
Additionally, only 11.4% of “Strong Democrats” say they’re satisfied with the state of democracy. Meanwhile, Republicans, especially the “MAGA-adjacent” crowd, are surprisingly upbeat about the state of the union under Trump 2.0.
So what does all this mean? In short: Michigan remains purple and passionately divided on both candidates and issues. With Duggan cutting into party bases, inflation creeping up, and tariffs dividing dinner tables, 2026 looks like it’s shaping up to be a slugfest.
