LANSING, Mich. (Michigan News Source) — Michigan is expected to have an abundance of apples this upcoming harvest season for the third year in a row — but exactly how many apples is up for debate amongst apple representation groups.

Last month, the national trade organization USApple released its predictions for the volume of the upcoming apple season, projecting that Michigan will produce 30 million bushels of apples, according to a press release by the Michigan Apple Committee.

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This number is an increase of about 10% from 2024’s apple crop size of about 27 million bushels, according to the United States Department of Agriculture, and well above the 5-year average crop size of 26.5 million bushels according to USApple. If accurate, the high volume of apples will continue Michigan’s upward apple production trend after 2023’s 31.9 million bushels and 2022’s record-breaking 32.38 million bushels.

Experts at odds.

However, the Michigan Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Association is disputing this year’s apple crop projection. Dawn Drake, the general manager of the association, told Michigan Farm News that the number is too high, well above MACMA’s projects of 25.5 million bushels in the coming year.

“I disagree with that number,” she told Michigan Farm News. “And if it turns out to be 30 million bushels, then I’m a professional dancer.”

Crunching the numbers.

Drake said the high number has costly implications for farmers in the apple processing industry, who are attempting to negotiate prices when the USApple projections come out. When the projections are higher than the actual number of apples, the farmers suffer losses due to unfairly low prices, according to Drake.

“My frustration is that their numbers are publicized immediately, all across the country, and customers everywhere see these numbers, and they think, ‘Hey, that’s a big crop, prices should be down,’” Drake said. “So, it really hurts us in the processing industry. And again, the crop is what it is, so we just don’t believe in overestimating the crop.”

Drake said that her organization uses the previous years’ crop as the starting point for their estimate, and that their method has come closer to the USDA’s final count than US Apple’s estimates. No history of apple crop predictions was found online to verify this claim.

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“So, we don’t try to underestimate or overestimate,” Drake said. “We estimate to the best of our ability, and we always base that estimate on the prior year’s crop, and our committee has historically been very close to being accurate when it comes to those estimates.”

Predicting the pick.

According to their Industry Report, USApple developed their predictions by incorporating the USDA’s projections for crop sizes — which was about 27 million bushels in Michigan for 2025 — as well as interviews and input from growers on the local level.

Diane Smith, the Michigan Apple Committee executive director, told Michigan News Source that the USApple estimate is the result of a collaboration between Michigan apple growers, shippers, and processors.

“These industry stakeholders convene at the conference to share their observations about the crop, then reach a consensus that forms the official estimate released the following day by USApple,” Smith said. “Ultimately, Michigan Apple growers are working hard right now getting this exceptional crop of apples harvested for consumers to enjoy, whether in fresh or processed form.”

Past predictions: overripe or undercounted?

According to Michigan Apple Association press releases available until 2014, USApple over-predicted the year’s crop size by over 3 million bushels six times, came close to accurate four times, and under-predicted by over 3 million bushels once.

At the time of this publication, Drake did not respond to a request asking for more details about MACMA’s apple crop predictions.

Michigan produces the second-most amount of apples in the country behind Washington, which produces over 166 million bushels of apples. The Michigan Apple Committee reported that the fall fruit is Michigan’s most largest and valuable crop, followed by blueberries and cherries.