MACKINAC ISLAND, Mich. (Michigan News Source) – State Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt pulled off last weekend’s biggest surprise, topping the straw poll at the Michigan GOP’s Mackinac Island gathering while presumed frontrunner U.S. Rep. John James (R-Shelby Township) slipped all the way to fourth place.

The poll, conducted by the media outlet, The Midwesterner, was a survey of 492 Republican activists, delegates, and party figures who were registered for the conference. They ended up putting James behind state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (29%), former prosecutor and Speaker of the Michigan House Tom Leonard (23.5%), and former Attorney General Mike Cox (18.5%). James received only 14% of the vote. Ralph Rebandt, Karla Wagner, Anthony Hudson and “other” each received under 6%.

The winner’s platform.

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Nesbitt, the winner in the straw poll, is centering his campaign on a promise to “make Michigan great once again” by reversing what he calls nearly eight years of decline under Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer. His priorities include ending Whitmer’s electric vehicle mandate and restoring Michigan’s auto industry, cutting taxes and state spending to ease inflation, defending Second Amendment rights and personal freedoms, supporting law enforcement, and working with President Trump to crack down on illegal immigration. Nesbitt also pledges to make Michigan more affordable for families while promoting traditional values rooted in faith, family, and hard work.

Absent from the spotlight.

The top three vote-getters in the poll participated in an issues forum at the conference, joined by other prospective candidates who have not yet officially entered the race, including businessmen Perry Johnson and Kevin Rinke, both of whom previously sought the GOP nomination for governor.

James and his campaign were notably absent from both the welcoming procession and the podium where others made their case for the state’s top job. According to the Detroit News, James spent Saturday night at a mixed-martial arts (MMA) fight in Southgate and added that the military veteran spoke at a Salute to Veterans event on the island organized by Mission Michigan, a super PAC primarily funded by Pam and Dan DeVos.

What this might mean for James.

While the left-leaning Michigan Advance spins the straw poll as proof of a looming “messy” primary, what they gloss over is the makeup of the island voters: party insiders and seasoned activists, not the broader Republican base. It will be primary voters – not conference politicos – who ultimately decide the nominee. And with John James’ high name recognition, he still holds three key advantages: fundraising power, media visibility, and an established base of support.

That is despite Trump’s lukewarm reaction to James’ running for the top spot in the state instead of running to hold onto his seat in Congress. Trump had said at a news conference in June, “I’m not sure I’m happy about that, John” and joked, asking him, “Do we have someone good to take your seat? Because otherwise we’re not letting him run for governor, we can’t.”

Banking on Trump’s blessing.

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Nevertheless, in July, James told The Hill he was confident he would earn Trump’s endorsement, saying, “President Trump knows that I’ve been in his corner, he’s been in mine, and I’m excited to use this opportunity I have to help make Michigan great again.”

GOP worries about losing a pricey seat.

By stepping away from his congressional seat, some in the GOP think James is turning a secure U.S. House district into a potential pickup opportunity, a shift that could put the GOP’s majority at risk next year.

Among those raising concerns is Rep. Lisa McClain (R-MI), who is the No. 4-ranking House Republican in D.C. as Chair of the House Republican Conference. While she was on the island, she told the Washington Examiner that it was “100% not ideal” that James was leaving his seat in Michigan’s 10th District open and added, “We have some really good candidates that are either in the race or talking about being in the race, so I’m confident that we will be able to keep that seat. It’s just gonna take a lot of resources.”

McClain admitted that James is jeopardizing a seat that Republicans spent $40 million for him to win. He had won the seat the first time by a razor-thin margin but in 2024 was able to win it by a more comfortable 6-point margin over his Democratic competitor.

Conference talk.

At the conference, Republican hopefuls for Michigan governor laid out fairly aligned conservative platforms both at the forum and in talks with reporters. On crime, Nesbitt, Leonard, and Cox all said they would accept or even seek federal assistance, including the National Guard, in Detroit if it could help curb violence. Taxes also came up prominently. Some contenders pushed for reducing or eliminating the state income tax, while there was also some support among candidates for reducing or eliminating property taxes.

In education, themes included removing diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) and LGBT initiatives from curricula, improving third-grade reading scores, and expanding school choice. Other proposals included reinstating Right-to-Work laws, shrinking or eliminating the state’s economic development arm, and easing regulatory burdens in housing and business sectors. Energy and insurance cost reductions were also raised. Overall, candidates portrayed a push for smaller government, lower taxes, greater law enforcement support, and conservative overhauls in education.

Who is running?

The entire roster of GOP gubernatorial candidates in Michigan so far includes: Former Attorney General Mike Cox; former U.S. House candidate Anthony Hudson; U.S. Rep. John James, former prosecutor and Speaker of the Michigan House, Tom Leonard; state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt; Oakland County pastor and political activist Ralph Rebandt; Traverse City entrepreneur Evan Space; and Karla Wagner, the leader of a ballot proposal campaign to get rid of property taxes in Michigan.

The winner of the GOP primary will face off against Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running as an independent, as well as the Democratic nominee who emerges from the party’s gubernatorial primary. That list currently includes candidates Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson; Lieutenant Governor Garlin Gilchrist; former mayor of Cape Coral, Florida Marni Sawicki; and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson.

Both Democrats and Republicans have until April 2026 to file to run for governor in Michigan. The primary election is on August 4, 2026 and the general election is November 3, 2026.