LANSING, Mich. (Michigan News Source) – A new Emerson College Polling/WOOD-TV survey of likely Michigan GOP primary voters shows businessman Perry Johnson narrowly edging U.S. Rep. John James, 21% to 20%, in the Republican gubernatorial race. It’s a statistical dead heat, with the difference well within the poll’s margin of error.
But the bigger story isn’t the sliver of a lead – it’s the shift behind it. Johnson’s surge signals growing momentum against a supposed frontrunner who critics have labeled a “ghost” on the debate stage, suggesting this contest may be far tighter – and far less predictable – than expected.
Debate dodge and deadline pressure.
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As we reported earlier, James has kept his distance from the debate stage, frustrating party insiders and grassroots voters and giving rivals like Perry Johnson an opening to gain ground. Despite being described as the frontrunner, James has failed to commit to multiple GOP debates, with his campaign arguing it’s better to wait until the field is finalized.
With Michigan’s filing deadline fast approaching on Tuesday, April 21, gubernatorial candidates are in a race against the clock to gather the required petition signatures needed to secure a spot on the August primary ballot – a process that has already tripped up campaigns in the past. Candidates must submit at least 15,000 valid signatures, a threshold that proved costly in 2022 when faulty petitions knocked several candidates out of the race, including Perry Johnson, off the ballot.
Johnson opens his wallet in a crowded GOP scramble.
This time around, Johnson is trying to avoid a repeat – and he’s been putting serious money behind it. According to the Detroit News, the wealthy businessman has already spent a whopping $10 million of his own money in the early stages of his campaign to boost his chances of qualifying and competing in the GOP primary. He has also said he’ll spend “whatever it takes” to win the governorship.
Johnson is one of several Republicans vying for the governor’s office in a packed primary field that, in addition to James, includes former Attorney General Mike Cox (10%), former state House Speaker Tom Leonard (4%), state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (3%), and longtime pastor Ralph Rebandt barely above 1%. And although Perry is currently ahead of James, the current “frontrunner” in the race is actually “undecided” which sits around 39%.
On the Democratic side, term limits prevent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer from seeking another term, setting up a primary between Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (52%), federal auditor Kim Thomas (5%), Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson (5%), biochemist Kevin Hogan (2%), former mayor of Cape Coral Marni Sawicki just above 1% and the undecideds around 36%.
Democratic senate primary a tie.
In Michigan’s Democratic U.S. Senate primary, it’s shaping up to be a tight race. Former Wayne County and Detroit health director Abdul El-Sayed and State Senator Mallory McMorrow are locked in a virtual tie with both El-Sayed and McMorrow getting 24% of the vote. U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens has 13% and about 36% are undecided.
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But El-Sayed isn’t cruising into that tie with McMorrow without baggage. Critics have pointed to his strong outreach to Michigan’s Muslim communities as both a political strategy and a potential vulnerability, especially as questions swirl about some of the individuals and groups he’s been photographed with at public events. However, he has jumped 8% in the polling between January and April – with a lot of his support coming from Michigan voters under 40. On the Republican side, Mike Rogers has 55% support with no one even close except the “undecideds” at 38%.
In many Michigan races, undecided voters are emerging as a major wildcard. That puts a premium on momentum – and suggests both parties could be headed for internal battles that are far less predictable, and far more uncomfortable, than they’d prefer.
