This op-ed is written by Greg Manz. He is the GOP consultant at Direct Edge Campaigns and a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania’s Fels Institute of Government. 

Michigan’s State Senate is where Republicans have their next opportunity to finish what voters started in 2024. While Michigan House Republicans made history as the only legislative caucus in America to flip a chamber from Democrat to Republican control, Republicans cannot afford to lose sight of the State Senate races that will determine who controls the future of Michigan.

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Several Senate districts are already emerging as prime pickup opportunities.

One of the clearest examples is Senator Kevin Hertel’s district. Hertel created boneheaded political headwinds for himself by playing games with funding for Selfridge Air National Guard Base, placing himself at odds not only with legislative Republicans but even with Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who has consistently emphasized the strategic importance of protecting and expanding Selfridge. In a state where military installations represent both national security and thousands of local jobs, Macomb County voters are paying close attention.

But Hertel’s problems go well beyond Selfridge. After taking campaign contributions from utility-company interests, Hertel wrote legislation handing roughly $90 million in tax breaks to Big Tech so they would build data centers in the Great Lakes State. That tells voters plenty about his priorities. At a time when Michigan families are demanding properly funded roads, meaningful property tax relief, and better schools amid a third-grade reading crisis and a state education system that ranks near the bottom nationally, Hertel chose to prove he is little more than a lackey for Big Tech Oligarchs, delivering them a lucrative tax break while Michigan families are left footing the bill. Macomb County families have every reason to ask a simple question: who does Kevin Hertel actually work for? His record increasingly suggests it is the Big Tech Oligarchs and powerful special interests, not his constituents.

Republicans should view this seat as one of their best opportunities to flip a Democrat-held district. To that end, John Goldwater is exactly the kind of candidate Republicans need to take on Kevin Hertel and put this seat firmly in play. His commitment to expanding opportunities in the skilled trades, supporting Michigan workers, and making public safety a top priority gives him a strong message that speaks directly to the working families and communities of the 12th District.

A Downriver race that deserves significant attention is Marcie Grzywacz’ campaign – Republicans would be making a mistake by overlooking what could become the surprise upset of the cycle.

The biggest reason is simple: she is a relentless campaigner.

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Politics still comes down to voter contact, and Grzywacz understands that better than most candidates. Her willingness to knock doors day after day mirrors the approach that helped propel State Representative Rylee Linting to victory in 2024. Linting proved that disciplined, consistent voter engagement can overcome financial disadvantages and conventional wisdom. She continues that grassroots approach today, and Grzywacz is following the same winning blueprint.

At their core, state legislative campaigns are won on front porches, at community events, and through direct conversations with voters. Candidates willing to outwork their opponents often outperform expectations, particularly in legislative races where personal connections matter. The Democrat incumbent, Darrin Camilleri, has increasingly distanced himself from the concerns of working Michigan families while embracing the radical Marxist wing of the Democrat party that is eating their establishment alive. Cammilleri’s endorsement of Abdul El-Sayed for U.S. Senate clearly reinforces a sharp ideological contrast that will not play in this working class community built on patriotism and family values. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that a well-funded independent expenditure committee capitalizes on that endorsement and starts dropping “Crazy Commie Camilleri” mailers in Downriver mailboxes.

These opportunities in Michigan underscore why organizations like the Republican State Leadership Committee deserve credit for refusing to wait until Labor Day to begin competing. Recent election cycles have reinforced a critical lesson: waiting to engage late is no longer a viable path to victory for Republicans at the state level.

That is why the RSLC has expanded Project Doorstrike, its grassroots initiative designed to hyper-localize races and maximize voter contact in key districts. It continues investing in its absentee ballot and early voting program, which proved highly successful in previous cycles, while making its largest investment ever in campaign data infrastructure, giving Republican candidates deeper analytics, improved voter targeting, and real-time insights that help campaigns compete more effectively in more districts than ever before. Republicans proved this formula works in 2024 by flipping the Michigan House against the odds.

Moreover, the Michigan Senate Republican Campaign Committee (MI SRCC) has built a historic caucus operation despite serving in the minority. Today, it holds roughly a $2.5 million cash-on-hand advantage over its Democrat counterpart — the largest fundraising edge for a Senate caucus committee in Michigan history. That financial strength, coupled with new leadership, puts Republicans in a strong position heading into the next election cycle. Senator Roger Hauck’s selection as the next Senate Republican Leader builds on that momentum at a pivotal moment. With Republicans focused on flipping the Senate and reclaiming the majority, Hauck is a battle-tested conservative who knows how to build a winning coalition, and is well-positioned to lead the caucus next term.

Michigan Forward deserves recognition as well. Its commitment to mobilizing a grassroots army and amplifying competitive legislative campaigns has positioned Republican Senate candidates, from the UP to Downriver, for victories on Election Day.

The path to a Republican State Senate majority will not be built through last-minute advertising or wishful thinking. It will be built through disciplined organization, aggressive voter contact, strong local candidates, and sustained investment. Republicans should leave no doubt that the districts represented by Kevin Hertel and Darrin Camilleri are firmly in their crosshairs this election cycle.

The opinions expressed by contributors and/or content partners are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Great Lakes News.