LANSING, Mich. (Michigan News Source) – Michigan’s 2026 governor’s race is already coming into focus, and two names stand clearly at the front of the pack: Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson for Democrats and Congressman John James for Republicans. A new Mitchell–MIRS Michigan poll of 616 likely November general election voters shows both candidates holding commanding leads in their respective primaries, setting up a likely showdown between two of the state’s most recognizable political figures.
Democrats rally behind Benson.
Among Democratic primary voters, Benson is the unmistakable frontrunner. She draws 48% support, leaving Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist at a distant 12% and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson at 5%. Another 35% remain undecided, but Benson’s lead is so wide that it would take a major shift to dislodge her. The numbers underscore Benson’s solid statewide name recognition and her status as the party’s preferred successor to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is term-limited.
James dominates GOP field.
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On the Republican side, Congressman John James holds an equally striking advantage. James captures 48% support in a crowded GOP field. His nearest competitor, former Attorney General Mike Cox, polls at just 11%, followed by former House Speaker Tom Leonard at 5%, Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt at 2% and retired pastor Ralph Rebandt at 1%. 33% are undecided.
For a party still emerging from internal divisions, James appears to be the consensus favorite even though he hasn’t shown up for debates against his opponents as we reported earlier. His two prior U.S. Senate bids and subsequent congressional victories seem to have boosted his visibility, momentum and donor network.
Independent Duggan complicates the general election.
The poll also tested several three-way general election scenarios, and each one shows a highly competitive race – thanks largely to the presence of Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a former Democrat, who is running as an independent and consistently draws around 20% of the vote.
In a hypothetical matchup against Benson and James, James leads with 37%, Benson follows at 31% and Duggan captures 18%. 14% are undecided. When Benson is paired with Cox or Nesbitt, she either narrowly leads or remains within the margin of error, but Duggan’s steady share of voters complicates both major parties’ paths.
Duggan’s support appears to come slightly more from Democrats than Republicans, giving the GOP reason for cautious optimism in a three-way contest.
Economy tops voter concerns.
When voters were asked to identify the single most important issue that will determine their vote for governor, one topic towered above all others: the economy and inflation, cited by 36% of respondents. No other issue came close – “threats to democracy” came in second at 16% (a common theme with Benson who is in a perpetual fight with President Trump and Republicans centering on election integrity), followed by crime/policing and healthcare, both at 10%.
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The focus on economic stress mirrors national trends and comes as Michigan continues to grapple with population loss, higher living costs and post-pandemic workforce challenges.
Senate race is tight, too.
The poll also points to a competitive U.S. Senate contest. Former Congressman Mike Rogers, the leading Republican candidate, holds leads over all three tested Democrats – Haley Stevens, Mallory McMorrow and Abdul El-Sayed.
A battleground state remains a battleground.
If the early numbers show anything, it’s that Michigan remains politically divided and intensely competitive. Benson and James may be the clear frontrunners in their primaries, but the general election – with Duggan’s wildcard candidacy and voter anxiety over the economy – looks far from settled.
