LANSING, Mich. (Michigan News Source) – Michigan’s 2026 governor and U.S. Senate races are starting to take shape, although one contest appears far more settled than the other, according to the latest polling.
Recent surveys from two different polling firms suggest Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is emerging as an early frontrunner in the Democratic governor’s primary, while the Democratic U.S. Senate race remains tightly packed with several candidates still within striking distance. One major wildcard also continues hovering over the governor’s race: Mike Duggan.
Benson is building a big lead in Democratic governor primary.
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A new MIRS/Mitchell Research poll conducted May 1-7 among 405 likely Democratic primary voters found Jocelyn Benson dominating the Democratic primary for governor with 62% support. Chris Swanson trailed far behind at 8%, while 30% remained undecided. The poll’s margin of error is ±4.9%.
The same poll also showed Benson holding strong favorability numbers among Democratic voters, with 79% viewing her somewhat or very favorably.
But Benson’s week hasn’t been all smooth sailing. The Michigan Education Association surprised many political observers by declining to endorse in the governor’s race after meeting with Benson, Swanson, and Duggan. According to reporting, union members were unable to reach a majority decision and may revisit the issue later.
Duggan factor still shaking up general election polls.
Even without the MEA endorsement, Benson still appears competitive in hypothetical general election matchups. A new Glengariff Group poll of 600 likely voters commissioned by the Detroit Regional Chamber found Benson leading Republican John James and Duggan in a three-way race. The poll showed Benson at 34%, James at 29%, and Duggan at 23%. The margin of error in this poll is ±4.0%.
In another matchup, Benson led Republican Perry Johnson 34% to 26%, with Duggan again at 23%. The pollster noted those numbers represented a major shift from January, when Duggan, Benson and James are essentially tied.
Senate race getting crowded and complicated.
Meanwhile, the Democratic U.S. Senate primary to replace retiring Senator Gary Peters is competitive but there is a Democratic frontrunner emerging. The MIRS/Mitchell poll found Abdul El- Sayed jumping into first place with 28% support, ahead of Haley Stevens (endorsed by former Senator Debbie Stabenow) at 18% and Mallory McMorrow at 17%. A whopping 38% of voters are still undecided.
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According to the poll memo, El-Sayed appeared to gain momentum after endorsements from Senator Bernie Sanders and progressive podcaster and anti-Zionist Hasan Piker. The pollster said about El- Sayed, “It is very clear that one of the most important factors in El-Sayed’s movement up in the polls is the support he is receiving from far left progressives who very strongly oppose United States and Israeli intervention in both Gaza and Iran. His support really bumped up after the endorsement by Hasan Piker. It will be interesting to see whether this is enough support to allow him to win. However, it is important to remember that with two women and with one man, the man has an advantage because the women vote will be divided almost equally.”
El-Sayed also has a huge lead among the younger voters with 80% support among 18-44 year olds.
Running against Mike Rogers.
But another poll paints a less clear picture of El-Sayed’s popularity. The Glengariff poll shows Stevens and McMorrow running neck-and-neck against Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers in hypothetical general election matchups, while El-Sayed trailed by more than five percentage points.
A lot can still change.
Of course, it’s still very early in the 2026 cycle. Many voters aren’t paying close attention yet and likely won’t until after summer, when campaigns start saturating televisions, mailboxes, Facebook feeds and YouTube ads. Nearly four out of ten Democratic Senate voters remain undecided, and the biggest waves of outside spending haven’t fully hit the airwaves yet.
Still, some early trends are beginning to emerge. Right now, Jocelyn Benson appears to be the Democrat to beat in the governor’s race, while the Democratic Senate primary is shaping up to be a crowded political food fight that could stretch through the summer. Polls, however, are snapshots in time – not crystal balls. Elections have a history of tightening late, surprising analysts, and shifting quickly once debates, advertising, turnout efforts and undecided voters come fully into play.
