DETROIT, Mich. (Michigan News Source) – A new poll of likely Michigan Democratic primary voters suggests the biggest battle inside the party isn’t over Israel, Gaza, or AIPAC – it’s over who Democrats believe is best equipped to take on President Donald Trump.
The Detroit News/WDIV survey conducted by Glengariff Group, widely reported last week, found Rep. Haley Stevens leading former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed 48.2% to 41.4%, with just under 10% still undecided. While the two candidates are virtually tied among “definite” supporters, Stevens enjoys nearly twice as many “probably” voters, giving her a measurable edge heading into the Aug. 4 primary.
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Dig into the numbers, however, and the Democratic coalition looks anything but united. El-Sayed dominates among younger voters, Democratic Socialists, white voters, college graduates, and Democrats living outside Metro Detroit. Stevens, meanwhile, runs strongest with older voters, Black Democrats, traditional Democrats, non-college voters, and Metro Detroit residents.
The battle lines are clear: progressives vs. party insiders.
El-Sayed has endorsements from Senator Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), controversial left-wing commentator Hasan Piker, the United Auto Workers (UAW), and the progressive group Indivisible, while Stevens has endorsements from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, retiring U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, former U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow and U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell. As the list suggests, this is a fight between the establishment Democrats vs. the progressives.
And in Michigan over the weekend, there was a big gathering of the progressives in Detroit with far-left Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez stumping for El-Sayed. The event looked less like a traditional campaign stop and more like a convention for the Democratic Party’s socialist wing – complete with promises of a political revolution and plenty of anti-establishment rhetoric.
Trump, not the Middle East, tops Democrats’ priority list.
But despite the rally’s focus on progressive causes, the latest polling suggests Democratic voters have something else on their minds. Despite months of campaign attacks by El-Sayed centered on Israel, Gaza, and AIPAC, not a single respondent named those issues as the primary reason they planned to vote. Instead, opposition to Trump topped the list (19%) with one likely voter saying, “Trump is a huge ass.” The economy was next at 17.8%, followed by voting rights (12.5%), electing Democrats (11.5%), and government reform (9.7%).
When presented with four different options and asked which was the greatest factor in choosing a Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate, that the candidate “will be a fighter that stands up to Donald Trump” got the highest response with 38.2% of the vote, ahead of the 25.2% who said they wanted a candidate who “can win in November and beat Mike Rogers.”
Even after a lengthy series of questions on the Middle East, Democratic voters rated candidates’ positions on Gaza and Israel just 5.6 out of 10 in importance compared with other issues.
An identity crisis inside the Democratic party.
The poll also exposes an identity crisis within the party. While 54% said they’d vote for a Democratic Socialist, only 17% actually identify as one. Likewise, 83% initially support a Medicare-for-All style health
care system, but support drops sharply once voters learn employer and union health plans would disappear under such a system.
The message from Democratic voters appears clear: ideology matters – but voting for someone who can push back against Trump appears to mean the most to them. So despite all the outrage over foreign policy, Michigan Democrats still seem far more motivated by stopping Trump than debating the Middle East – or anything else.
