Just days after a Glengariff Group poll showed Republican Mike Rogers cruising to a roughly 10-point lead over Democrat Abdul El-Sayed if the progressive Muslim candidate wins Tuesday’s primary, a new Mitchell Research survey paints a dramatically different picture, showing the race tied at 45%-45%.

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Even so, Mitchell’s own numbers show El-Sayed has lost ground since June. The candidate who led Rogers 47%-42% in the firm’s June 11-13 poll has now fallen into a dead heat.

The bigger surprise, however, is how dramatically Mitchell’s findings differ from Glengariff’s. That’s not a statistical quirk. It’s a gap of more than 10 percentage points between two respected Michigan polling firms surveying voters at nearly the same time.

A tale of two polling organizations.

The Glengariff Group surveyed likely Michigan general election voters from July 22-24. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. About 85% of those surveyed were reached by cellphone and 15% by landline.

The Mitchell poll was conducted July 28-29, 2026, by sending text messages to a random sample of registered voters and directing them to complete an online SurveyMonkey questionnaire. It surveyed 672 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.77%.

According to Mitchell Research & Communications, they were ranked 13th most accurate pollster of 136 polling companies who polled in 2024 by ActiVote. It received a higher ranking than all Michigan based pollsters and higher than the New York Times, Washington Post, ABC News, CNN, Quinnipiac, and YouGov. The Glengariff Group was ranked 66th.

Haley Stevens vs. Mike Rogers.

Interestingly, the two polling firms are much closer when it comes to a potential Mike Rogers-Haley Stevens general election matchup. Glengariff found Stevens with a razor-thin 45.5%-44.7% lead, while Mitchell gave Rogers a 46%-43% advantage. Both surveys point to a highly competitive race.

The polling split.

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While the two firms largely agree that a Rogers-Stevens race would be a toss-up, they paint dramatically different pictures if Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is the nominee and the contrast between the two polls is hard to ignore. With more than three months until Election Day, opinions can still shift, campaigns can stumble, and voters can change their minds. In the end, only one poll will matter – the one conducted at the ballot box in November.