LANSING, Mich. (Michigan News Source) — A new poll shows a competitive race for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat.
According to Mitchell Research & Communications, Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers by 4.2 percentage points, with 45.6% support to Rogers’ 41.4%.
October surprise?
The statewide survey of 682 likely voters was conducted Oct. 1 for several Michigan television stations. It has a reported margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
Mitchell’s analysis noted that the Republican candidate gained ground between polling around Oct. 1 and the final results in each of Michigan’s three previous U.S. Senate races. In 2024, Rogers lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by approximately 0.3 percentage points. John James, now a U.S. representative and the Republican gubernatorial nominee, lost Senate races in 2018 and 2020, but also narrowed his opponents’ polling leads by Election Day.
Voter demographics
According to the poll, Rogers has support from 88% of Republican voters, while El-Sayed has support from 86% of Democratic voters.
Rogers leads among white voters, 47% to 42%, while El-Sayed leads among Black voters, 71% to 9%.
Former President Barack Obama is scheduled to campaign in Detroit with El-Sayed and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson on Oct. 24.
The poll also shows a gender divide. Rogers leads among men, 51% to 40%, while El-Sayed leads among women, 50% to 33%.
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El-Sayed leads among younger voters, holding a 28-percentage-point advantage in both the 18–29 age group, 45% to 17%, and the 30–44 age group, 54% to 26%.
Rogers leads among voters ages 45–64, 48% to 45%, and those 65 and older, 53% to 41%.
The pollster cautioned that demographic subgroups have greater uncertainty because their sample sizes are smaller.
Heading to the polls
Absentee ballots became available Sept. 24. Michigan’s statewide early in-person voting period begins Saturday, Oct. 24, and runs through Sunday, Nov. 1. Some communities offer additional early voting days. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.
