LANSING, Mich. (Michigan News Source) – If you’ve ever wanted to put your money where your conspiracy theory is, welcome to Kalshi – the federally regulated prediction market where traders are literally buying and selling the future. One of the hottest bets trending on their website right now asks: “Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?”
Despite President Donald Trump recently announcing that he wants all of the “alien files” released, Kalshi traders are only giving it a 19% chance that the President, Cabinet, Joint Chiefs, or a federal agency definitively confirms extraterrestrial life.
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Kalshi is basically a live market for predictions where people trade contracts on real-world events. Think of it like this: every event listed has a simple Yes/No contract. Each contract ultimately settles at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn’t.
The current trading price – anywhere from 1¢ to 99¢ – represents what the market believes the probability is right now for something to happen. If a Senate race contract is trading at 40¢, the market is essentially saying there’s a 40% chance that outcome occurs. If you buy a “share” at 40¢ and the event happens, the contract resolves at $1 and you make 60¢ per share. If you’re wrong and it doesn’t happen, it resolves at $0 and you lose the 40¢ you paid.
And because people can buy and sell contracts at any time before the event is decided, the price moves in real time – reacting instantly to debates, news, scandals, fundraising reports, polling shifts, or court rulings. It’s less like placing a bet and waiting…and more like watching a stock ticker that reflects collective expectations minute by minute. So don’t be surprised that if you go on the Kalshi website, some of the numbers we’ve reported have changed already.
Betting on everything but the weather (actually, that too).
What can you “bet” on? Just about everything – politics, sports, culture, crypto, climate, economics, financial markets, tech, science and more. While it may look and feel like gambling, it’s legally structured as financial trading. Kalshi operates as a regulated exchange under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), meaning users trade event contracts rather than place traditional bets.
Kalshi makes money by charging a transaction fee on the expected profit of each contract. The full fee schedule and calculation details are posted on its website. Fees can vary by market, especially for major events like elections, award shows, or championship games. And yes – don’t forget about taxes. Uncle Sam always expects his share. Profits from prediction markets are taxable under federal law, meaning traders must report their net winnings to the IRS.
Hoops in Michigan.
Even with contracts spanning everything from Capitol Hill to climate change, sports still dominates the action with a reported 90% of Kalshi’s trading volume going towards wagers on sports. And when it comes to sports, the hardwood is where traders are currently placing many of their chips. Traders are putting money behind predictions for the men’s college basketball championship – and the in-state split is telling. The University of Michigan is sitting at a low 23% to win it all, but Michigan State University lags at just 2%. Ouch.
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That gap comes even though both programs are having strong seasons. Currently, the Michigan Wolverines are perched at No. 1 nationally, looking every bit like a serious March contender. The Michigan State Spartans also sit with a top 15 ranking, and are comfortably in tournament territory as well. Both teams are in excellent shape – but if you’re going by where traders are placing their cash, they don’t think either team can carry their victories to the end.
Michigan: where traders are placing their political chips.
For those interested in politics, Kalshi’s Michigan betting board is flashing a whole lot of blue right now. For the U.S. Senate race, Democrats are pegged with an 81% chance of victory, with Mallory McMorrow holding a 53% to 25% edge over Haley Stevens for the nomination. The line also gives Democrats a 63% shot at winning the governor’s race, with Mike Duggan sitting at 22%. On the Republican side, the board shows John James with a 67% chance of securing the GOP gubernatorial nomination, compared to Perry Johnson at 26%. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is given an overwhelming 90% likelihood of winning the Democratic nomination for governor, and Democrats are listed with a 71% chance of taking the attorney general’s office.
Unlike traditional polls, Kalshi reflects where bettors are actually putting their money in real time – which some argue makes it a more hard-nosed indicator of political expectations. For Michigan Republicans scrolling through those odds, it may not make for pleasant reading. And in a curious side note for 2028 watchers, Michigan is currently sitting at just 3% odds of being the first state to vote in the Democratic presidential primary despite the Democrats pushing to move up the voting.
For and against.
The Trump administration has publicly thrown its support behind online prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket as several states move to ban or restrict them, arguing they are essentially unregulated gambling. Through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission under Chairman Michael Selig, the federal government filed a court brief asserting that these markets – where people trade contracts on outcomes of future events – should be overseen as federally regulated financial products rather than subject to state gambling laws. In the administration’s view, these contracts function more like commodities, futures, and derivatives – similar to oil, agricultural goods, or gold – than traditional gambling bets.
States including Nevada and Massachusetts have challenged that view, claiming the platforms function like unlicensed sportsbooks. The issue highlights a growing legal fight over how prediction markets should be classified.
In Michigan, regulators haven’t outright banned prediction markets for individual users, but the Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB) has made its position clear: state-licensed casinos and sportsbooks are warned not to offer or get involved in prediction markets or they risk losing their licenses.
So whether it’s extraterrestrial life, East Lansing basketball, or politics, Kalshi proves one thing: in 2026, you’re not just stuck watching or reading the news anymore – now you can trade it.
